Growth Projections and Capacity

Before the Council can understand the growth needs it must understand existing capacity and likely future land needs.  This page describes how the Council is doing this.


Growth Projections 2011

The purpose of the Growth Projections work is to establish the likely future population, visitor accommodation and dwelling growth in the district.  In March 2011, the growth projections for the district were reviewed and updated using latest information and data from Statistics New Zealand, the Tourism Strategy Group, and the QLDC dwelling capacity model (July 2010).  

In summary, the 2011 growth projections indicate that the average total population of the District in 2011 is 46,612 (28,440 residents and 18,172 visitors) and this is projected to increase to 67,439 (44,093 residents and 23,346 visitors) by 2031. Furthermore, the average age of the district’s population is projected to rise from just under 36 years old in 2011 to nearly 42 in 2031.

Detailed projections for the district are contained in the following:

>> Growth Projections 2011 - full report (pdf 428kb)
>> Growth Projections 2011 - tables  (xls 338kb)


Dwelling Capacity Model

The Dwelling Capacity tables show the estimated capacity for residential development in the Queenstown Lakes District as of July 2009.  This has been projected using the Council's Dwelling Capacity Model.  The maps show the extent of the areas discussed in the tables.

>> District Wide Dwelling Capacity Tables July 2010 (pdf 19kb)
>> Dwelling Capacity Map - Queenstown area  (pdf 890kb)
>> Dwelling Capacity Map - Wanaka area  (pdf 505kb)
>> Dwelling Capacity Map - Rural areas   (pdf 2.22mb)
>> District Wide Dwelling Capacity Tables April 2012  (pdf 60kb))
>> District Wide Dwelling Capacity Tables March 2013  (pdf 75kb)

Dwelling Capacity Model – explanation manual

For help with understanding the Dwelling Capacity Table, advice on interpreting the results and explanations of the methodologies used, please refer to the manual below.

>> Dwelling Capacity - explanation manual July 2010 (pdf 270kb)


Commercial and Industrial Land Needs Study

This study established the existing capacity and likely future needs for these land uses in the District.  It was adopted by the full Council at its September 2006 meeting.

>> Commercial and Industrial Land Needs Study  (pdf 304kb)